The following reflects my genuine personal impressions and opinions. I firmly believe in what I’ve observed, but I encourage you to review other sources and conduct your own due diligence before drawing conclusions.
I believe Trinity is on a trajectory toward failure. Despite some last few remaining talent, including a great CEO, the likelihood of the company ever achieving a reasonable multiple that would allow Kohlberg to avoid a loss on its investment is extremely slim. Unless the root causes of the issues outlined below are addressed, all indicators point toward decline rather than growth. It is hard to imagine any savvy, informed investor paying a respectable sum for this business in its current state, let alone for where its headed.
Here are the main issues:
Culture dominated by toxic politics
Since CBP’s acquisition by Trinity, leadership dynamics have resembled Succession or Game of Thrones: focused on internal power struggles and nepotism rather than genuine strategic growth. A useful parallel is the Boeing–McDonnell Douglas merger (if you are not familiar, check out John Oliver's take on it). The former head of CBP has ascended rapidly (normal partner at the time of acquisition, to head of market access, and now second-in-command of the entire company) coinciding with widespread turnover. Many long-standing Trinity employees were displaced to make way for her “inner circle,” including her brother and other ex-CBP colleagues. The message is clear: survival depends on loyalty to the right people. One emblematic decision was leasing an extravagant London penthouse office (literally, one of the best buildings in the entire London, and that's saying a lot) for CBP’s market access team, despite the massive existing cost pressures across the company. To me, this epitomizes questionable priorities.
Quality of work has markedly declined
Once renowned for exceptional output in analytics and forecasting Trinity now struggles with even basic analytical tasks. Errors in fundamental logic and simple mathematics have become common, producing work that at times resembles high-school-level assignments. The conclusions are not just weak but just downright factually wrong (like, equivalent of saying Medicare covers 100% of the population in the US, or missing out Keytruda in a forecast for PD1/PDL1 performance), forcing senior staff to redo large portions of projects. This constant firefighting has burned out many capable managers, principals, and partners, leaving only a small fraction of real talent remaining at Trinity (maybe <10% of the company). Clients are increasingly questioning the value delivered, yet the general management refuses to acknowledge the issue or have any capacity/interest/freedom-of-decision in investing to fixing it. As more experienced staff depart, the quality gap will inevitably become more visible to clients.
Failed expansion beyond core U.S. segments
Trinity has struggled, and in some cases outright failed, to expand beyond its traditional strengths in U.S. forecasting and PMR. In fact, the firm is contracting internationally. The EU office was closed in 2025 after a slow painful wind-down over a couple of years where people were forced out, leaving London as primarily a market access hub dominated by ex-CBP leadership. The staffing mix speaks for itself: around 90% market access, with only a couple of people scattered across PMR, strategy, and forecasting, and these are mostly servicing U.S.-based Trinity teams. APAC capabilities are even weaker, effectively, there is only 1 single partner in the entire company that understands APAC commercialization. Trinity simply cannot call themselves APAC experts if really its just 1 person out of 1300 that understands that market. These gaps in talent, data, and infrastructure mean Trinity lacks credibility as a truly international consultancy.
Lack of basic human decency
There are some senior leadership that have repeatedly demonstrated an alarming lack of empathy. For example, when a manager had to take a short medical leave following a mental breakdown after her father’s death, the immediate vocal reaction from the partner was outrage at the disruption to work. Not condolences or support. And the HR part of the company is virtually non-existent when it comes to employee support (expect them to read word-to-word whatever is printed on a random manual or whatever they got told by management). Sadly, this is not an isolated case; many similar instances reflect a culture devoid of compassion. Given that consulting already demands long hours and sacrifices to work-life balance, this absence of human understanding makes the environment unbearable for many talented employees, accelerating attrition.
Pressure on margins without willingness to invest
As a PE-backed firm, Trinity faces constant pressure to deliver outsized returns. But its chronic cultural, operational, and structural issues will require significant investment and long-term commitment to fix; moves that may temporarily slow topline growth. I think many of the senior leadership are excellent and want to fix it, but they are being held back by those preferring short-term optics over sustainable health. The focus is not on the future.
